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Your Presumptive Democrat Nominee

Tipmoose

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#7
Well, he's leading in pretty much every poll out there...both in terms of national vote and state to state vote. Those polls have been rock solid for almost a year. I'm afraid we are going to see exactly what happens when he is elected. It ain't gonna be a landslide for Trump thats for sure. I'm not even sure he will carry Ohio.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...lections/election_2020/ohio_biden_49_trump_45

Looks like he's pissing Arizona away too.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-arizona-slides-democrat
 
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Jackalope

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#8
Well, he's leading in pretty much every poll out there...both in terms of national vote and state to state vote. Those polls have been rock solid for almost a year. I'm afraid we are going to see exactly what happens when he is elected. It ain't gonna be a landslide for Trump thats for sure. I'm not even sure he will carry Ohio.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...lections/election_2020/ohio_biden_49_trump_45

Looks like he's pissing Arizona away too.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-arizona-slides-democrat
Every single poll had hillary winning by a landslide. ABC News poll had her at 90% never say never.
 

Tipmoose

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#9
Every single poll had hillary winning by a landslide. ABC News poll had her at 90% never say never.
I think that the RCP average of polls on Nov 6th was something close to 1.5pts for Hillary. It was the handicappers, the Nate Silvers, and the analysts that gave her the 90% chance of winning. There were a handful of state polls that were wrong...but the national vote total was pretty accurate, IIRC.
 

finelyshedded

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#10
Does anyone know exactly how or who they’re polling? Seems everything is tilted in to the lefts favor. Hollywood, Media, Academia, minority persuasion and 2/3 of the swamp in Washington. Are they polling by phone? Urban citizens? Hell, I bet if I called 100 people on welfare or with some union affiliation in any of these big cities I’d get a huge sway toward Harris and Biden! Let’s be frank, that’s what’s really going on....🙄
 

Jackalope

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#11
I think that the RCP average of polls on Nov 6th was something close to 1.5pts for Hillary. It was the handicappers, the Nate Silvers, and the analysts that gave her the 90% chance of winning. There were a handful of state polls that were wrong...but the national vote total was pretty accurate, IIRC.
"Land slide" was a little lofty of a statement. I went and looked the RCP average had Hillary at +3.6 and she ended up +2.1 for a accuracy of 1.5. They did however completely botch key states that Trump ended up winning. PA, Michigan, Wisconsin. You would have been hard pressed to find anyone on the news who wasn't dead sure of her victory however. And they believed it based in their election night meltdowns. Biden is a little ahead of where Hillary was on election night with a +4.5 or +5. But so was Hillary at some points. The biggest thing is it ain't over until it's over. The thing that won for Trump was the silent voters who showed up in droves. They and more need to show up again.
 

Jackalope

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#12
Does anyone know exactly how or who they’re polling? Seems everything is tilted in to the lefts favor. Hollywood, Media, Academia, minority persuasion and 2/3 of the swamp in Washington. Are they polling by phone? Urban citizens? Hell, I bet if I called 100 people on welfare or with some union affiliation in any of these big cities I’d get a huge sway toward Harris and Biden! Let’s be frank, that’s what’s really going on....🙄
I have never in my life been polled. Except by the NRA who always asks for more money. 😅
 

hickslawns

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#14
I know very few people voting for Biden.
1) Drive around. Trump signs are about 98 for every 2 Biden signs. Even where my buddy lives in a mixed community of liberal/conservative, he is seeing very few Biden signs. In past elections he would see numerous signs for Clinton or Obama. This year he said if they are voting Biden they are embarrassed to out his sign in their yard.
2) The other interesting thing I am hearing is the old school views. My mom was telling me she will NOT absentee vote. Had her knee replaced. Has a valid reason to not be out and about. She was adamant she WOULD vote in person. Then she rattled off lists of her friends in their 70s who were refusing to absentee vote. They don't trust the mail in ballots.
3) my buddy is in the union. Pipefitters hall announced support for Biden. He laughed. Said he doesn't know a single pipe fitter in the hall who isn't FOR Trump.
4) I remember the polls 4 years ago. . . .
 

Jamie

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#16
polls not designed to reflect public opinion, polls meant to sway public opinion.

I don't place much stock in polls, especially this far out. When was the last time any of you can remember a Republican, or anyone besides a democrat, leading in an election poll? only poll that will be half way accurate is the one taken the day before the election because that's the poll that everyone will still remember after the vote. I have a good feeling that the "silent majority" has grown considerably. Trump has proven himself to lots of fence riders in the last three years. some never Trumpers, too.
 
#17
Even with polls there is a good amount of people who are just flat out afraid to admit publicly they intend to vote for Trump. Several we know, a lot of union people and school teachers, are right smack dab in that category. Even if I answered the phone on an unknown number I would be reluctant to even say anything for fear of my phone getting slammed. I had a Biden text come over the other day, went in and blocked the number and immediately received an identical text with a similar number. Did that 5 fucking times before I just deleted the 6th text.
 

Dustinb80

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#18
I also get those texts, but not from or for Biden. Its always been from or for Trump. I got a video , which was a picture with a voiceover, from Eric Trump talking about absentee voting being safe.
 
Likes: Big_Holla
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#19
Anecdotally, the biggest difference I see this time compared to 2016 is in the affluent suburbs. Places where, 4 years ago, you wouldn’t have seen a Hillary sign are now littered with Biden signs. These are places that are traditionally solidly Republican. Not sure if they actually intend to vote for Biden or are just putting up a PC front. Either way, just my observation
 
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hickslawns

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#20
Anecdotally, the biggest difference I see this time compared to 2016 is in the affluent suburbs. Places where, 4 years ago, you wouldn’t have seen a Hillary sign are now littered with Biden signs. These are places that are traditionally solidly Republican. Not sure if they actually intend to vote for Biden or are just putting up a PC front. Either way, just my observation
That is a fear of mine. I admit I am in a bubble. More rural areas are certainly "Trump country". If we voted on land mass, Trump will get 2/3 to 3/4 of the country. Those heavily populated areas are an area I cannot get a read on because I avoid them.