I think the OCT doe season will be between 8,000 - 10,000. I know that some of the guys that wait to kill their deer during the 2 day will not be able to wait and will go ahead and kill theirs during the 7 day gun. I think you will see a 4,000-6,000 increase during the regular gun season
I believe that many of the deer killed during the bonus weekend were killed that weekend by choice. A lot of hunters are holding out hoping for a good buck. When it looks like it isn't going to happen and the season is ending they whack something. That is a lot of the "bonus" kill each year. Many of those kills will just shift to Saturday Sunday of the regular gun season now.
This new doe only season will be the first gun opportunity for the season. It will have high participation if the support I am reading on the hunting sites, and the ODNR hunter survey is correct. If it is a nice cool fall weekend it will have huge support and the kill could easily hit -12,000 plus. This also will attract a large number of youth hunters with it being the first gun season of the year. I guess this season participation and harvest could reduce the 9,000+ youth season harvest somewhat. All I know is if kids can kill 9,000 deer in a weekend I think a state full of hunters with MZ's can easily kill more.
We'll see I guess.
I see what you;re saying.. Couple things..
Last year during bonus gun the numbers were as follows. Total 17,172
5,263 Bucks
9,610 Does
2,299 Button bucks.
So what are the physical differences between the two seasons..
No bucks allowed
More crops will be standing Oct than in December
Denser vegetation during Oct than in December
66% fewer rounds. went from 3 to 1 shot.. How often during bonus gun did you hear multiple shots? The majority of the time.
Button bucks will be smaller and easier identify.
Hotter temps.
So lets run the numbers.
17,172 Total
-5,263 Bucks
-------------
11,909 Does and BB..
Add in the denser vegetation and standing crops limiting range, and the single shot limitation. You'll see that number drop even lower. So even if it's in the 8,000 - 10,000 range like you predict it's still lower than the doe killed during bonus gun. At 12,000 it's a wash.
I don;t think we can say there will undoubtedly be increased participation during Oct due to warmer weather, as it has a negative effect too. And if it does it'll likely work itself out during regular gun. One thing I have noticed hunting early bow season is people don't like getting out in the heat, bugs, crops and vegetation. In years past I have had virtually the entire month of oct and some of Nov to myself. It wasn't until the crops came off and the weather turns cooler that you start seeing people hunting more. They just don't want to deal with it. I understand. My stands in October are a pain to get to. Sometimes I have to walk a mile or more around the edge of a field to get there; where as when the crops are off it's a 400 yard shot straight across. People typically don't want to hunt in it, walk around it, deal with the 70 degree temps, or dragging deer that far.. I don't think the participation will be all that much higher, and if it is it will be offset by lower participation during gun. It also limits opportunity, range, and shot capacity.. Lets face it. In most areas if the crops are still on shot opportunities will be limited to that of a good bowhunter.
I see the early season as being more of a wash.. But it wouldn't surprise me if it is lower.