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Thoughts on this theory?

hickslawns

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Thinking of the Alsheimer "Rut Forecast" has me curious. It is my understanding there are multiple reasons for the deer breeding at the same time frame. One of these reasons is the "swamping" or saturation of new fawns at the same time in the spring. This flood of fawns ensures there are more fawns than predators can eat all at once.

In theory, with a condensed rut period, most of the fawns should drop close to the same time. Do you guys think we will be seeing more fawns next year? Do you think there will be a higher survival rate for the fawns next year? Just curious.
 

dante322

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I know there were a lot of fawns this year. I'm sure the breeding cycles are what they are for a lot of reasons. "Swamping" sounds logical. I think the main factor in fawn mortality would be the harshness of winter more than predation though.
 

jagermeister

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I don't know... This is sort of a "what came first... the chicken or the egg?" I think the "swamping" is simply a result of the common estrous cycles... a result that's been supported by natural selection. One could hypothesize that "swamping" is what caused the common estrus cycles, but that's assuming that does have ALWAYS had 6 month gestation periods. I could hypothesize that deer once had variability in gestatioin periods... say, for some does it was 3 months, for others it was 12 months, etc. All of these does could have already by cycling at the same time due to other factors... moon, photoperiod, etc. The 6-month gestation genes could have outlasted the others since fawning in the spring is most beneficial. It's all hypothetical... There could be many reasons for why the rut is the way it is. And we'll probably never know for sure which one(s) apply.
 

bowhunter1023

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Appalachia
I think there are far more factors involved in the number of fawns we see and how many survive than just the timing and "condensation" of the rut. I sure hope we see more and that more survive, but I'd just be speculating if I said for sure one way or the other...
 

hickslawns

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Good points. I think Dante's point could easily have more bearing on survival rates of fawns than predation. Harshness of first winter has got to be a major factor in it.

Interesting to see the different thoughts and theories though.
 

motorbreaker

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North of Toledo
I know there were a lot of fawns this year. I'm sure the breeding cycles are what they are for a lot of reasons. "Swamping" sounds logical. I think the main factor in fawn mortality would be the harshness of winter more than predation though.

I have to dissagree with this, I dont think we have harsh winters here in ohio, Atleast not where i live. I'd put my money on the preaditors for sure.
 

jagermeister

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I have to dissagree with this, I dont think we have harsh winters here in ohio, Atleast not where i live. I'd put my money on the preaditors for sure.

I agree with you. In comparison to other states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine... Ohio winters are anything but harsh. Most fawns are in pretty good shape around here by the time it gets really cold.