It is more of an elementary thought (because that is how my mind works
), than what you are trying to apply here. I first came up with the thought when speaking with Mike T for the first or second time back in 2008 or 2009. In Fayette Co, our habitat is made up of very small parcels of cover in a sea of agriculture. The herd is very easy prey for gun hunters, drivers in particular. If a swarm of drivers enter a woods, the deer will either stand and be shot, or run into wide open areas to be gunned down. A few will make it through the gauntlet, but only if the gauntlet is limited. Most of the driving is done on the last Saturday of season, add Sunday hunting, and the gauntlet has doubled.
So lets say we have 10 deer in the woodlot. Along come two truckloads of hunters. One group rolls into the woods, the other waits. During the drive, four deer are killed, leaving 6. If we still operated under a 6 day season, that group of deer would be left to make more deer. However, we have added Sunday hunting, so our group of hunters is back the next day. There are 6 deer left, they burst from cover, and 4 of them are shot. We now have 2 deer left to for next season, instead of the 6 we would have had in 2001. It's a simple thought, really always has been, but it demonstrates how we can kill the same, or even more, with less deer. Our hunters killed 4 on Saturday out of a possible 10. Then they killed 4 on Sunday, out of a possible 6. There were less deer in our lil woodlot, yet our kill remained the same both days.
What my personal observations showed me was that our deer were not ABLE to reproduce in sustaining numbers. Keep in mind, I was running a half dozen BECs non-stop on one small 150 acre parcel. I knew if a squirrel farted. In addition to in-field personal observations, it was evident our fawns were not making it to fall, and the obvious culprit was coyotes. While it is perfectly normal to see 2 and sometimes 3 fawns with each adult doe, my observations turned to seeing 3 adult does for every fawn! Coyotes were killing our fawns. I started killing coyotes in February and March as they started building their dens, it's the only time of year they are not transient, and provided the most benefit to our local fawns. After one spring, the difference was noticeable! Seeing fawns again is a huge motivator to keep killing coyotes! It's now part of my annual routine.
I spoke with Tonk on several occasions, begging him to cut back on our tag allocations for Fayette Co. It wasn't until Fayette hit the rock bottom of all Ohio's counties that he finally moved us to Zone A (at the time, 1 regular tag, 1 antlerless archery). I had hoped he would pull back the reigns before we bottomed out, but he did not. Now, the area is still mostly void of deer, with the exception of the relatively small area I hunt. It truly is the diamond in the rough. I see no deer commuting from my house to the farm, but the farm again has a thriving population. There hasn't been a doe shot off the property that I'm aware of since 2006. On 500 acres, I'm now essentially the only one hunting due to the landowner running off others, and some just giving up in the lean years. I have it made, and it is no thanks to the DOW.
When I first came up with the elementary thought of the woodlot deer, most of the state was still a few years from noticing a decline. I even told Tonk at the time some areas likely had enough deer that they would seem unaffected. As it now seems, even the mighty Athens Co has noticed a down turn. I also told Tonk and Mrex that we had LESS deer in this area now than we had in 1995. Both disagreed. Both were wrong. In 1995, there were 600 deer killed in Fayette Co, last year there were 300 for the season total. Why? There are LESS deer, a lot LESS. Athens County, BTW, killed essentially the same number of deer last season as was killed in 1995, even given the addition of Sunday hunting, youth gun season, muzzleloaders that actually go bang when you pull the trigger, and far better archery gear than we had in 1995. Oh yeah, and a heck of a lot more tags for those folks interested in piling deer carcasses.
Each time our harvest numbers have started to show a reduction over the last 15 years, Tonk added opportunity. Youth season, Sunday hunting, bonus gun, muzzy season became a week-long affair for a time. It's no wonder the kill inflated, while the total population did not! I pointed this out to Mike T at Strouds this fall. He replied "Any time you kill over 35 percent of the population, you reduce the herd. I don't think we have reduced the herd"... I replied "If a county killed 600 in 1995, and only 300 in 2012, would that be an indicator we've killed over 35 percent"....
You have to look at the really fine print to see how the harvest numbers have stayed as high as they did, to really see how deeply the herd is cut. A couple of years ago when some of the big kill counties were starting to show declines, he raised the bag limits in other counties, like Van Wert, Darke, Mercer, Lake, Preble, Miami, counties that had been Zone A counties for years. They gave a false boost, they have nearly wiped those counties out....I guarantee it, simply because they are all very similar to Fayette in habitat. I said when they made those changes it would happen, I saw it happen before in the mid-90's when I traveled those areas often and knew many of the local hunters. Look at the harvest stats for those counties this year...dang. Hate to say it, but I told 'em so. I told Tonk again at Strouds that his numbers for those areas were going to be in the trash this year....it's predictable, if you look. Unfortunately, he doesn't look, because he just doesn't care. Now that there is nothing left, he may pull back the reigns in those areas, but I doubt it, he hasn't cut deep enough just yet.
Dang... I don't even know if I answered your question.
